Chase: Aug 13, 2023 (Kansas)

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Details

Location	Nevada, MO – Fort Scott, KS – Iola, KS
Start	Aug 13, 2023 5:00 AM
End	Aug 14, 2023 1:30 AM
Features	Wall cloud, lightning, shelf cloud

Overview

Woke up early Sunday morning to head south for a 5% SPC issued across central Missouri.  I had to be back in Omaha Sunday night for a work event Monday, so I was a bit limited in how far I was willing to travel east away from the interstate. As the night-before and day-of progressed, it looked like any initiation would be later in the day and further west of the outlook areas. I didn’t have time to chase night storms across Missouri, so I headed towards eastern Kansas to try to pick up one or two of the first cells.

Unfortunately it was a bit worse than expected. The front was a bit late to the party (and broad initiation didn’t end up occur until after dark).  So, just before sunset, I found myself racing to the only cell that was building energy, up near Iola, KS.  Pulled over on a gravel road and set up for some lightning timelapse and shots of the shelf as it was approaching. I also wasn’t the only one…there were dozens of chasers racing to this cell on a single highway. I eventually found a spot to set up and started some timelapse series.  Brandon Copic and Corey Gerken rolled up on me just as I was moving camera positions.  Their livestreams get a shot of me but a great video of the cell as it comes in and the rain which followed. Not a bust…the sky in the storm was electric. So many great photos (below).

Forecast (written before I left)

Will be a conditional setup for the afternoon in both NE/IA and KS/MO. Storms are rolling through the Midwest overnight with a low pressure system. A second shortwave trough will move across the area throughout Sunday giving us the lift we need for storm development. Depend on cloud clearing and how much instability we can gain, will determine how the afternoon will look.

LCL and LFC look good for surface storms/mid-level convection in both setups. Surface shear direction in both locations is favorable, but not major magnitude differences.

The Kansas/Missouri area clearly has greater severe weather potential. Some NAM soundings were showing a lot (~6000) of free CAPE. ESRH looks ok up north, but looks great for the southern setups. Lapse rates better look better down south too. Shear is better down south, especially if you look at both 0-1km and 0-3km.

In NW Iowa, the potential just doesn’t look as good. I’m guessing if LCL was a bit higher or there was a temperature inversion at the surface (temps were lower -> more CAP) or less of that surface shear….there wouldn’t be a 2% TOR from the SPC.

It’s obvious, the potential is greater down south; so that will be my target. The more I look – the more I am liking an Eastern KS focus. We’ll see as the morning goes on where it takes me.

*Disclaimer: at the time of writing this there were several new models available…including the HRRR 12Z. Since my mind was already made up, I kept with the models I had when I made the decision. When I post the actual chase notes, I’ll include all of the data.

Route

Photos